Research Papers

ABSTRACT

Exploring the defined probabilities in betting and forex trading. This paper examines the value and applicability of probabilities in sport betting and forex trading. This is the conclusion of earlier papers entitled "3%" and "5%" algorithms (these were just mathematical analysis approach of these system results)

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INTRODUCTION

Probabilities drive decisions in betting and forex trading, shaping risk management and strategy. But do Probabilitieshold the inherent value in these high stake contexts? And whats their scope in predicting market outcomes? This paper explores these questions, reviewing theoretical perspectives and practical applications in betting and forex trading

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LITERATURE REVIEW/ BODY

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INTRODUCTION

Lets focus first on the "5% eigenvector alogorithm paper". In this research paper, I was analyzing forex strategies(resistances, retests, orderblock, engulf candles, gaps, demand and supply) which mainly exists in "technical analysis" and also the so called " foundamental analysis". But all the rrsults defied greatly from the expections, This raises questions, do system owners (e.g banks, financial institutes,....) leverage inherent control to influene outcome(market dynamics).

If system owners do influence market dynamics, it'd explain the apparent randomness despite using establised technical, foundamental and psychological analysis. Next are the influencers who often promote it with ",you can make it","it is possible" naratives, posibly, they work for/with those organisations.

In bettiñg (specifiCally computer generated outcomes e.g casinos games, virtual sports,) likely employ algorithms favouring the house. Given this design, probabilies here are inherently screwed towsrd the operator',s advantage.
In real sports, sophisticated data analysis likely informs bookmarkers (betting companies partners), pinpointing where they can maximize profits. This might be okay but i hope that competing teams/prayers might be incentivized to influence outcomes, aligning with profitable money/stake placed by many peoples/betters worldwide such manipulation would change the probabilities, undermining the integrity of betting markets if operators benefit from outcome manipulation, it raises questions about where probabilities truly lie.

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CONCLUSION

Probabilites can inform strategies, but the inherent biases in systems(betting/forex) can negate expected value. success might depend on understanding these biases reality and managed risk. but NO GUARANTEED outcomes. This structural bias is what i base on to discourage involvement, as probabilities are rarely neutral

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